Sunday, July 24, 2016

ARE MINORITIES REALLY MORE LIKELY TO BE MURDERED BY POLICE ?

This  is  the  kind  of  politically-incorrect  article  which  makes  it  impossible  for  me  to  ever  run  for  public  office  again ...

When  someone's  iPhone   catches  yet  another  white  police  officer  shooting  and  killing  yet  another  black  person,  so  long  as  the  black  person  does  not  have  a  sniper  rifle  trained  on  police  heads,  does  that,  per  se,  justify  nationwide  riots  and  protests?

Or,  should  blacks  be  shrugging  their  shoulders  and  saying,   "Why  aren't  you  whites  rioting  or  protesting?  You  have  more  grounds!"?

For  purposes  of  this  piece,   I  hereby  affirm  that  there is  terrible  prejudice  in  our  society  against  minorities,  especially  against  blacks.   It  is  so  inimical  and  pervasive  that  even  blacks  frequently  feel  driven  to  cooperate   with,  and  engage  in  behavior  cooperating  with,   that  prejudice.   I've  seen  race  prejudice  against  blacks  by  blacks  in  action.  It  is  disgusting.  Denying  race  prejudice  against  blacks  in  our  country  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

However,  I  have  also  seen   racially  prejudiced   actions  by  minorities,  including  by  blacks,   against  whites.   Denying  it  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

And,  of  course,  I  have  also  seen  courageous  acts  of  selfless  love  by  blacks  toward  whites.  Denying  it  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

Okay,  so,  hopefully,   readers  can  see  where  I  am  initially  going  here.  In  other  words,  I  want  to  check  if  black  hate  toward  whites  in  response  to  murders  by  police  of  blacks  is,  on  balance,  justified,  or  should  blacks  be  singing  praise  of  police  for  what,  on  balance,  amounts  to  restraint  by  police  when  it  comes  to  murdering  minorities,  especially  blacks,  in  the  extremely  limited  sense  that   the  figures  suggest  that  police  make  a  conscientious  effort  to  murder  fewer  blacks  encountered  by  them  than  whites  encountered  by  them,  per  capita!!!!!!!

Once  again,    I  affirm  the  following ...

For  purposes  of  this  piece,   I  hereby  affirm  that  there is  terrible  prejudice  in  our  society  against  minorities,  especially  against  blacks.   It  is  so  inimical  and  pervasive  that  even  blacks  frequently  feel  driven  to  cooperate   with,  and  engage  in  behavior  cooperating  with,   that  prejudice.   I've  seen  race  prejudice  in  action.  It  is  disgusting.  Denying  it  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

However,  I  have  also  seen   racially  prejudiced   actions  by  minorities,  including  blacks,   against  whites.   Denying  it  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

And,  of  course,  I  have  also  seen  courageous  acts  of  selfless  love  by  blacks  toward  whites.  Denying  it  is  the  act  of  an  idiot.  Denying  it  is  immoral.

Okay?

So,  this  blog  article  examines,   "Is  the  evidence  there  to  justify  the  riots  and  protests  against  police?"

A  lot  of  blacks  and  white  liberals  will  avoid  doing  the  emotional  work  which  such  an  analysis  entails  by  blowing-off  it,  and  me,  as  "obviously  prejudiced,"  or  "obviously  deranged."    They'd  rather  argue  with  their  assumptions,  than  think.

But  --  come  on  --  do  better  than  that.

The  FBI  collects  the  statistics.

As  one  would  expect,  in  a  country  where  62%  of  the  people  are  non-Asian,  non-Hispanic,   non-black  whites,    the  raw  stats  say  that  the  cops  murder  more  whites  than  blacks.

But,  of  course,  a  moron  knows  that  such  a  statistic  is  not,  per  se,  significant.

Suppose  a  country  has   11,000,000  white  citizens  and  10  black  citizens,  and  one  year  later  11  whites  have  been  murdered  by  police,  but  10  blacks  have  been  murdered  by  the  same  police.

Technically,  one  could  argue  that  "the  whites  had  it  worst,"   but  would  that  be  true?

No!  Of  course  not!  Statistically,   in  such  a  society,   being  black  is  a  death  sentence!  Blacks,  in  such  a  society,  have  it  much,  much,  much  worse.

And  so,   the  Mavens  of  Openmindedness  at  the  Washington  Post,  when  they  looked  at  this  issue,   made  an  adjustment  to  the  FBI's  figures ...


According to the most recent census data, there are nearly 160 million more white people in America than there are black people. White people make up roughly 62 percent of the U.S. population but only about 49 percent of those who are killed by police officers. African Americans, however, account for 24 percent of those fatally shot and killed by the police despite being just 13 percent of the U.S. population. As The Post noted in a new analysis published last week, that means black Americans are 2.5 times as likely as white Americans to be shot and killed by police officers.
U.S. police officers have shot and killed the exact same number of unarmed white people as they have unarmed black people: 50 each. But because the white population is approximately five times larger than the black population, that means unarmed black Americans were five times as likely as unarmed white Americans to be shot and killed by a police officer.
That  seems  like  a  correct  adjustment  --  like  that  liberals  should  all  conclude,  "Hey!   Look!  The  protestors  are  correct!  Let's  all  stop  listening  to  the  other  side  and  go  home!"  Right?

But,  could  it  be  that  the  Washington  Post  has  not  adjusted  the  figures  in  its  analysis  enough?

Let  me  repeat  that  question:   Could  it  be  that  the  Washington  Post  has  not  adjusted  the  figures  in  its  analysis  enough?

To  put  it  another  way,   Despite  the  Washington  Post's  adjustment,  are  figures  still  lying  and  liars  still  figuring,  in  their  analysis?

One  of  the  things  which  happens  in  society  is  that  poverty  drives  crime.

And,  poverty  drives  drug  use  which  also  drives  crime.

When  I  was  in  the  Philadelphia  DA's  Office,  years  ago,  from  1978  to  1981,    what  did  I  see?

What  I  saw  was  much,  much,  much  more  crime,  per  capita,  per  square  mile,  and  per  hour,   in  poor  black  neighborhoods  as  in  white  neighborhoods  in  Philadelphia  --  about  8  times  as  much,  when  I  read  a  police  call  count  in  the  early  1980s.

The  reason  is  simple  and  obvious:  Again,  poverty  drives  crime.

And,  poverty  drives  drug  use  which  also  drives  crime.

The  crime  drives  raw  police / suspect  contact  frequency  --  more  crime  is  seen  by  police,  and  more   calls  for  assistance  go  out  to  police,  in  ghetto  neighborhoods.

Did  the  Washington  Post  adjust  for  that?

No.

What  happens  when  we  adjust  for  that?

Essentially,  the  numbers  reverse  themselves.   In  addition  to  it  becoming  more  clear  why  Washington  Post  editors  don't  park  their  cars  in  ghetto  neighborhoods,   there  is  an  odd,    suspicious  appearance  that,  per  encounter,    police  are  somewhat  more  likely  to  murder  whites  than  blacks,   as  you  weight  the  figures  to  reflect  police  calls  and  stops.

The  bottom  line:    Suddenly,  it  becomes  unclear  that  there  is  really  a  problem.

I'm  not  saying,  "The  statistics  say  that  there  is  no  race  prejudice."

I'm  not  saying,  "The  statistics  say  that  that  white  cops  don't  murder  unarmed  blacks."

I'm  saying,    "The  statistics  seem  to  require  a  conclusion   that  per  police  call  or  police  stop,  in  America   police  are  really  more  likely  to  murder  whites  than  they  are  to  murder  blacks."